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14 comments
60 forecasters

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

2025result: No
203070%
203587%
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Authors:
blednotik
Opened:Dec 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2050
Metaculus
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard
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When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Jan 2031
(23 Aug 2026 - Aug 2040)
Jan 2031
(23 Aug 2026 - Aug 2040)
181 forecasters

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

95% chance
81

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

27% chance
1.4k
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