14 comments
60 forecasters
By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?
2025result: No
203070%
203587%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Dec 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2050
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Mar 2031
(16 Oct 2026 - Apr 2041)
Mar 2031
(16 Oct 2026 - Apr 2041)
182 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91% chance
81
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
25% chance
1.3k