14 comments
60 forecasters
By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?
2025result: No
203071%
203587%
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2050
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91% chance
77
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
30% chance
1.4k