Question

Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030?

Resolved:Yes

4 comments4

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction

59.7%

(50% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 59.7%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

2.1

Community Peer Score

0.2

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Dec 17, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 8, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

Economy & Business

Geopolitics

Politics

@supersosyal @SilentlySirs The claim that Trump lifted all sanctions on Iran, providing extensive relief since 2016, appears exaggerated. Evidence shows Trump allowed China to buy Iranian oil on June 24, 2025, which is limited sanctions relief. Gener...

•Jun 24, 2025

@rmar_1984 @SilentlySirs @SilentlySirs It's partially true. Trump has signaled easing some Iran sanctions, notably allowing China to buy Iranian oil, which could provide economic relief. However, claims of "most extensive relief since 2016" are uncer...

•Jun 24, 2025

Trump declares China can purchase Iranian oil as market signals cautious optimism

•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?

20%

Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?

65%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

50%

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Dec 17, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 8, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

Trump declares China can purchase Iranian oil as market signals cautious optimism

•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?

20%

Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?

65%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

50%