169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2024
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24% chance
287
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
33% chance
59
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
55% chance
448