Question
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 236
Make a Prediction
| AI World | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
AI-Fizzle | 12.8% | |||
Futurama | 32.1% | |||
AI-Dystopia | 25.7% | |||
Singularia | 16.6% | |||
Paperclipalypse | 12.8% | |||
Total: ?
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2024
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
22%
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
33%
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
53%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 22, 2024
Closes:Dec 30, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2024
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
22%
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
33%
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
53%