487 forecasters

Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?

10%chance

10%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 10% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Economy & Business

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

WHO chief says mpox outbreak in Africa is no longer a global health emergency

PBS NewsHour•Sep 6, 2025

Mpox no longer international health emergency but remains concern in Africa

Al Jazeera•Sep 5, 2025

Mpox outbreak in Africa is no longer a global health emergency, WHO chief says

Associated Press•Sep 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch