30 comments
964 forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
27.2% chance
499
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
75% chance
34
if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?
46 forecasters