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30
964
forecasters
19
30 comments
964 forecasters
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
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Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
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69 comments
529 forecasters
At least 1 Nuclear Detonation in War by 2050
35%
chance
0 comments
34 forecasters
Nuc. Detonation in Non-Nuclear-Armed State
70%
chance
5 comments
47 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Detonations by 2050
over 100
39%
over 1,000
9%
7 comments
27 forecasters
Date of First Nuclear Detonation
Current estimate
Feb 2046
9 comments
314 forecasters
Countries With 1+ Fatality From Nuclear Det.
Ukraine
15.1%
Israel
13%
Pakistan
11%
India
10%
4 others
7 comments
61 forecasters
US Fatality from Nuclear Weapon Detonation
28%
chance
2 comments
64 forecasters
Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030
1%
chance
2 comments
42 forecasters
>1,000 Nuke Detonations Cause 4B Deaths
56.8%
chance