106 comments
919 forecasters
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
64%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 64% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Nov 4, 2024
Resolved:May 30, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?
01 Oct 2029
(16 Nov 2027 - 18 Nov 2029)
01 Oct 2029
(16 Nov 2027 - 18 Nov 2029)
19 forecasters
Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?
1% chance
803
When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case)
>01 Jan 2026
(>01 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2026)
>01 Jan 2026
(>01 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2026)
28 forecasters