8 comments
55 forecasters
Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
4%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Mar 25, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 28, 2024
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Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?
80% chance
59
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
15 forecasters
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80% chance
141