77 forecasters

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

7%chance

5 pp this week

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 25, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 28, 2024

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Machine gunners going head-to-head with Russian drones are getting new interceptors for the hard-to-reach threats

Business Insider•Sep 17, 2025

Mass Drone Attack 'Could Easily Happen' on US Soil, Defense CEO Warns

Newsweek•Sep 16, 2025

Terrifying moment kamikaze drone blows up Ukrainian university - as Zelensky calls on Europe to create an air defence 'umbrella'

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch