Question

What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters?

Resolved:9.357701

11 comments11

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

6.03

(2.49 - 11.4)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2.491	6.025	11.37
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2.491	—
median	6.025	—
upper 75%	11.37	—

What was the final result?9.357701

Community Baseline Score

78.6

Community Peer Score

5.2

Authors:

txmerritt

Opened:

Jan 23, 2024

Closes:

Sep 30, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 10, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 26, 2024

Elections

2024 Leaderboard

Trump drives surge in Ice detentions of those with no criminal record despite stated priorities

Guardian•Jun 24, 2025

Trump approval rating on immigration leads in new poll. How have Americans reacted to his policies?

•Jun 24, 2025

ICE is arresting more non-criminals than ever: Just 8% of detainees have serious criminal records

Independent•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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504k

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19%

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following fiscal years?

1.99M