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39 comments
70 forecasters

Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?

No Restrictionresult: Yes
Licensing for Useresult: No
Restricted Use for Approved Applicationsresult: No
Authors:
LearningEveryday
Opened:Jan 26, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 9, 2025
Regulation of AI
Politics
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2024 Leaderboard
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Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes?

40.1 states
(36.6 - 43.4)
40.1 states
(36.6 - 43.4)
31 forecasters

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

Deny some entities
15%
Deny ≤99 countries
8%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
0.5%
4 others
25 forecasters

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

5% chance
150
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