69 forecasters

Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?

20%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 25, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 28, 2024

Trump Officials Visited by Germany Far-Right AfD Party Leader: Report

Newsweek•Sep 16, 2025

Merz’s conservatives ahead but far-right AfD party the biggest winner in German local elections

PBS NewsHour•Sep 15, 2025

German far right triples support in local election vote, early forecasts show

Independent•Sep 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch