32 forecasters

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

90%chance

90%chance

Annulled

Annulled

The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved Annulled.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Feb 15, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolved:

Jan 20, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 18, 2024

Regulation of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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