• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
21 comments
73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2.5%
Japan1%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Dumbledores_Army
Opened:Feb 7, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Geopolitics
Daily Mail logo
'It is time to call Putin's WW3 bluff': Russia's drone incursions are the signal NATO must now join the fight in Ukraine or risk European invasion, experts warn
Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025
Independent logo
Russia raises tensions with NATO as Putin shows off his battlefield nuclear weapons
Independent•Sep 16, 2025
Independent logo
Robodogs, laser beams and drone-zapping microwaves: The weapons that will decide the wars of the future
Independent•Sep 13, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran
64%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
7%
7 others
109 forecasters

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

2023
9576
2025
9464
2032
10.1k
2 others
87 forecasters

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

2023
3.96
2025
4.22
2032
6.16
2 others
92 forecasters
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature