97 forecasters

Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 24, 2024

Closes:

Mar 31, 2024

Resolved:

Apr 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 27, 2024

🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

2024 Leaderboard

Paraguay believes fugitive ex-Mexican state security chief wanted to start a criminal cell

Associated Press•Sep 15, 2025

7 killed in another mass shooting at Ecuador pool hall as police blame "territorial dispute" between organized crime

CBS•Sep 15, 2025

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