301 forecasters

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

58%chance

58%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 58% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 12, 2016

Closes:

Dec 31, 2016

Resolved:

Sep 27, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 12, 2016

Natural Sciences

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Extraterrestrial life needs the right atmosphere. This planet 40 light-years away might fit the bill, scientists say.

NBC•Sep 11, 2025

Planet 40 light-years away may have Earth-like atmosphere to support life

New York Post•Sep 11, 2025

JWST Sees Hints of an Atmosphere on a Potentially Habitable Exoplanet

Scientific American•Sep 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch