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1
14 forecasters
2
1 comment
14 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024?

Resolved:No
14 forecasters
if yes
if no

Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?

50%
50%
Resolved:Annulled

Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?

65%
65%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes50%
if No(Yes)
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3 comments30 forecasters

Will Bukele rule for life?

6%chance
1 comment30 forecasters

Will Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next elections?

92%chance
3 comments20 forecasters

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted by the ICC by 2030?

75%chance
0 comments30 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by September 1, 2026?

35%chance
0 comments7 forecasters

Will Haiti hold the 1st round of its presidential election before Sept 1, 2026?

42.8%chance
2 comments94 forecasters

(Attempted) murder of ≥2 US judges or legislators in these years?

2021-2022result: No
2023-2024result: Yes
2025-2026result: Yes
2027-202875%
3 comments168 forecasters

Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?

10%chance
1 comment58 forecasters

Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?

11%chance