21 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

00

8Mar 2034

6Jun 2032

431 May 2029

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI upgrades Codex with a new version of GPT-5

TechCrunch•Sep 15, 2025

‘Selling coffee beans to Starbucks’ – how the AI boom could leave AI’s biggest companies behind

TechCrunch•Sep 14, 2025

OpenAI GPT vs. Google Gemini: the High-Stakes Battle Shaping the Future of A.I.

Observer (NY)•Sep 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch