45 comments
57 forecasters
Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?
29%chance
Ambiguous
The community gave this a 29% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Sep 24, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 4, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will Palestine become a full UN member state?
May 2041
(Jan 2034 - Dec 2055)
May 2041
(Jan 2034 - Dec 2055)
14 forecasters
Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?
20% chance
25
Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?
45% chance
32