Question

Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Resolved:Ambiguous

45 comments45

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction

29%

(7% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 29%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Feb 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2024

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

U.N. agency slams U.S.-backed Gaza aid effort as "a death trap," as health officials say 79 people killed

CBS•Jun 24, 2025

Israel savages EU over ‘outrageous and indecent’ human rights review

•Jun 23, 2025

Israeli-backed group seeks at least $30 million from US for aid distribution in Gaza

Independent•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Palestine become a full UN member state?

Jan 2042

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

45%

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Feb 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2024

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

U.N. agency slams U.S.-backed Gaza aid effort as "a death trap," as health officials say 79 people killed

CBS•Jun 24, 2025

Israel savages EU over ‘outrageous and indecent’ human rights review

•Jun 23, 2025

Israeli-backed group seeks at least $30 million from US for aid distribution in Gaza

Independent•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will Palestine become a full UN member state?

Jan 2042

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%

Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?

45%