38 forecasters

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

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0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 4, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 2, 2024

2024 Leaderboard

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, after Putin ‘put down a marker’ to NATO

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, as Putin puts 'down a marker' to NATO

Independent•Sep 12, 2025

NATO Articles 4 and 5 explained after Russian drones shot down over Poland

Independent•Sep 12, 2025

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