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4
24
forecasters
6
4 comments
24 forecasters
Future of AI
4 more...
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?
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2036
50%
2030
26%
2026
result:
No
1d
1w
2m
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41 forecasters
Leading Lab No Safety
2026
result:
Yes
2030
28%
2036
20%
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AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?
11%
chance
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IMO AI Prize
2026
78%
2027
17%
2028 or later
3%
2024 or before
result:
No
2025
result:
No
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37 forecasters
AI alignment experts consider alignment techniques enough?
Current estimate
19.8%
4 comments
23 forecasters
Feasible Nanotechnology
2050
77%
2040
50%
2030
16%
1 comment
31 forecasters
US-China AI Treaty
2040
45%
2035
36%
2030
12%
2025
result:
No
5 comments
90 forecasters
Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?
40%
chance
172 comments
275 forecasters
Which AI world before 2050?
AI-Fizzle
9.3%
Futurama
35.4%
AI-Dystopia
29.1%
Singularia
17.5%
Paperclipalypse
8.7%