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19 forecasters
Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?
203644%
203020%
20261%
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Opened:Mar 12, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
35 forecasters
Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?
12% chance
37
In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?
20 forecasters