US Iran War Before 2025?

conditional

condition

Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?

Resolved:No

28 forecasters

if yes

if no

US Iran War Before 2025?

Resolved:Annulled

US Iran War Before 2025?

Resolved:No

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Make a Prediction

Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?	US Iran War Before 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 0.1%

What was the final result? No

Community Peer Score

3.5

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israel and Iran Have Set the Stage for the Next War

Jacobin•Jun 30, 2025

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Iran’s supreme leader faces his greatest challenge

CNN•Jun 30, 2025

The increasing isolation of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Independent•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

30%

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

28%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

17%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israel and Iran Have Set the Stage for the Next War

Jacobin•Jun 30, 2025

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Iran’s supreme leader faces his greatest challenge

CNN•Jun 30, 2025

The increasing isolation of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Independent•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

30%

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

28%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

17%