Question

Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?

Resolved:Yes

76 comments76

Total Forecasters172

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

8.0

Community Baseline Score

-1.9

Authors:

Sylvain RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 2, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2024

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israel declares Gaza City a combat zone, says bodies of 2 hostages recovered as it expands the war

CBS•Aug 29, 2025

Houthis Threaten Escalation With New Weapon

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Will Israel survive a total victory?

American Thinker•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

25%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

12%

Authors:

Sylvain RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 2, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2024

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israel declares Gaza City a combat zone, says bodies of 2 hostages recovered as it expands the war

CBS•Aug 29, 2025

Houthis Threaten Escalation With New Weapon

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Will Israel survive a total victory?

American Thinker•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

25%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?

12%