• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
48 forecasters
4
0 comments
48 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024?

Resolved:No
48 forecasters
if yes
if no

Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024

1%
1%
Resolved:Annulled

Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024

1%
1%
Resolved:No
if Yes1%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
32 comments957 forecasters

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

20%chance
17 comments224 forecasters

Ukraine takes control of Donetsk and Luhansk?

4%chance
18 comments104 forecasters

Ukrainian control of cities January 1st, 2027

Nova Kakhovka5%
Polohy2.8%
Tokmak1.5%
Sievierodonetsk1%
10 others
94 comments189 forecasters

Russian control of cities January 1, 2027

Ivanivske99%
Velyka Novosilka99%
Kostyantynivka80%
Druzhkivka34%
12 others
32 comments143 forecasters

Trump Ukraine War Resolution

37%chance
7 comments92 forecasters

Will Zelenskyy cede land for peace?

25%chance
171 comments390 forecasters

End of Ukraine conflict

Current estimate
16 Sep 2027
14 comments111 forecasters

Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?

99%chance