116 forecasters

One year after a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement is reached in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which side will the Wikipedia article for it say was the victor?

Neither74.7%

Russia20.2%

Ukraine5.1%

Forecast Timeline

Neither

Russia

Ukraine

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Authors:

NMorrison ForkLeaf

Opened:

Feb 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 20, 2024

Geopolitics

Mired Down in War: Should Ukraine Surrender?

Red State•Sep 10, 2025

For Both Ukraine and Russia, Compromise Aligns With Necessity

AntiWar•Sep 9, 2025

The West’s Hypocritical Opposition to Ukraine’s Forced Territorial Concessions

AntiWar•Sep 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026

97.2%

1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025

2.5%

1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025

0.1%

2 others

74 forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

6% chance

1.8k