101 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

14%chance

Top Key Factors

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 20, 2024

Airspace violations and drone incursions: How Putin is testing Ukraine’s European allies

Independent•Oct 31, 2025

Airspace violations and drone incursions: How Putin is testing Ukraine’s European allies

Independent•Oct 31, 2025

NATO Scrambles Fighter Jets After Mass Russian Missile Attack

Newsweek•Oct 30, 2025

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