93 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

10%chance

5 pp this week

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 20, 2024

Drills in Belarus and drone incursions into Romania: How the war in Ukraine has already become a European conflict

Independent•Sep 15, 2025

NATO could spark all-out war with Russia if it shoots down drones over Ukraine, Moscow warns as Europe bolsters its borders amid invasion fears

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

NATO at War With Russia, Kremlin Says

Newsweek•Sep 15, 2025

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