Question

Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?

Resolved:Yes

17 comments17

Total Forecasters93

Community Prediction

74.9%

(67% - 78%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 74.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

10.6

Community Baseline Score

43.7

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Mar 11, 2024

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 7, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 14, 2024

Elections

Politics

2024 Leaderboard

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

53%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

0.5%