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2
20 forecasters
1
2 comments
20 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

New PHEIC in 2024?

Resolved:Yes
20 forecasters
if yes
if no

International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

3%
3%
Resolved:No

International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

1%
1%
Resolved:Annulled
if No1%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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12 comments25 forecasters

Will there be a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

5.4%chance
2 comments21 forecasters

WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030

18%chance
1 comment9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2040?

50%chance
1 comment18 forecasters

H5N1 pandemic before 2030

29%chance
2 comments96 forecasters

Will Bird Flu be declared a PHEIC before 2030?

51%chance
18 comments103 forecasters

Hantavirus PHEIC before 2027?

1%chance
31 comments96 forecasters

Date WHO announces end of COVID-19 pandemic

Current estimate
22 Mar 2028
1 comment31 forecasters

US-China AI Treaty

204045%
203536%
203012%
2025result: No