International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

condition

New PHEIC in 2024?

Resolved:Yes

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

Resolved:No

International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

Resolved:Annulled

2 2 comments

20 forecasters

Make a Prediction

New PHEIC in 2024?	International Pandemic Treaty before 2025
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 3%

What was the final result? No

Community Peer Score

3.0

Community Baseline Score

44.3

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2024

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

2% chance

253

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

65% chance

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

2% chance

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2024

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

2% chance

253

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

65% chance

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

2% chance