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86 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 21, 2024
Closes:Jul 30, 2025
Resolved:Aug 2, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 24, 2024