50 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

76%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 21, 2024

Closes:

Jun 9, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 10, 2040

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 24, 2024

The Bryan Caplan Collection

'It is time to call Putin's WW3 bluff': Russia's drone incursions are the signal NATO must now join the fight in Ukraine or risk European invasion, experts warn

Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

The Beginning of the End of NATO

Atlantic•Sep 11, 2025

Will Nato pass – or fail – Russia’s great test?

Spectator (UK)•Sep 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch