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3
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8 forecasters
AI Benchmarks
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How many METR tasks will be completed before 2025?
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1w
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8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
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2025
result:
No
2030
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2035
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2040
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2050
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When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
Current estimate
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16 comments
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Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030
97%
chance
5 comments
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When will LLMs beat superforecasters at ForecastBench?
Current estimate
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1 comment
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Current estimate
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