54 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

84%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Mar 21, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2045

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2046

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 24, 2024