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9
64
forecasters
13
9 comments
64 forecasters
Bridgewater x Metaculus Contest Warm Up 2024
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What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament?
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Yes
2
1%
4
14.4%
11
14.4%
3 others
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Lowest relative rank of knockout team 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Current estimate
43.5
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What will be US' Democracy Index for 2026?
Current estimate
7.51
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Charging Stations Conditional on EV Codes?
≤ 16
129k
> 16
107k
8 comments
30 forecasters
Highest GPQA Diamond Score 2024 to 2027
1 comment
34 forecasters
Flu Season Worse Than 09-10 by 2032
34%
chance
8 comments
57 forecasters
Highest score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on Jan 1, 2028?
Current estimate
42.6%
0 comments
17 forecasters
How many teams will compete in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
29 or Fewer
0.1%
30 to 39
0.5%
40 to 49
57.8%
50 to 59
7.1%
60 or More
34.5%
26 comments
739 forecasters
Top ARC-AGI-2 score in 2026?
Current estimate
92.7