Question

Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction

37.5 states

(29.2 states - 41.1 states)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	29.18	37.54	41.13
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	29.18	—
median	37.54	—
upper 75%	41.13	—

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Mar 28, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 31, 2024

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Information security

Deepfake

Moratorium on state AI regulation clears Senate hurdle

TechCrunch•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

70%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Mar 28, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 31, 2024

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Information security

Deepfake

Moratorium on state AI regulation clears Senate hurdle

TechCrunch•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

70%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%