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8 forecasters
Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
17%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 27, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 30, 2024
Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
60% chance
52
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
15% chance
78
Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
40% chance
58