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5
30 forecasters
4
5 comments
30 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024?

Resolved:No
30 forecasters
if yes
if no

Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?

88%
88%
Resolved:Annulled

Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?

70%
70%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes88%
if No(Yes)
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2 comments766 forecasters

Starship orbital refueling in 2026?

36%chance
1 comment9 forecasters

SpaceX Starship Integrated Launches 2026?

Current estimate
8.51 Launches
10 comments37 forecasters

SpaceX lands stuff on Mars by 2035?

An uncrewed craft48%
At least one person4%
At least one person—and return them to Earth1.6%
Elon Musk0.1%
3 comments24 forecasters

Will Starliner be canceled?

47%chance
1 comment36 forecasters

Successful Orbital Rocket Launches by Year

125 comments2.8k forecasters

SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

10%chance
14 comments47 forecasters

Humans sent to Mars before 2036?

15%chance
19 comments58 forecasters

Percent of launched rockets that are reused