Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?

condition

Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024?

Resolved:No

30 forecasters

if yes

if no

Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?

88%

Resolved:Annulled

Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?

70%

Resolved:Yes

5 5 comments

30 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024?	Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 70%

What was the final result? Yes

Community Peer Score

29.7

Community Baseline Score

-68.9

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 13, 2024

Musk Says SpaceX to Fly Bigger, Fully Reusable Starship in 2026

Bloomberg•Sep 11, 2025

SpaceX Targets an Orbital Starship Flight With a Next-Gen Vehicle in 2026

Wired•Sep 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

65% chance

How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 13, 2024

Musk Says SpaceX to Fly Bigger, Fully Reusable Starship in 2026

Bloomberg•Sep 11, 2025

SpaceX Targets an Orbital Starship Flight With a Next-Gen Vehicle in 2026

Wired•Sep 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?

65% chance

How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?