3 comments
15 forecasters
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
In 2026-202749.2%
In 2028-202923%
2030 or later19.6%
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Apr 9, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 12, 2024
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
25% chance
132
When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?
06 Feb 2028
(20 Feb 2026 - Feb 2032)
06 Feb 2028
(20 Feb 2026 - Feb 2032)
23 forecasters
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?
Jan 2031
(21 Feb 2028 - Jan 2036)
Jan 2031
(21 Feb 2028 - Jan 2036)
106 forecasters