3 comments
14 forecasters
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
In 2026-202744.7%
In 2028-202924.6%
2030 or later21.6%
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 9, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 12, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
40% chance
131
When will an AI-written paper first get published in a top 50 scientific journal according to the Scimago Journal rankings?
06 Sep 2028
(01 Apr 2026 - Jun 2033)
06 Sep 2028
(01 Apr 2026 - Jun 2033)
23 forecasters
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?
Apr 2031
(01 Mar 2028 - Dec 2036)
Apr 2031
(01 Mar 2028 - Dec 2036)
103 forecasters