Question

Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved:Yes

3 comments3

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction

99%

(98% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

2.1

Community Baseline Score

98.0

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Apr 10, 2024

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 18, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 14, 2024

Politics

2024 Leaderboard

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

53%

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

0.5%