Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?

conditional

condition

Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?

Resolved:No

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?

Resolved:Annulled

Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?

Resolved:No

2 comments2

Make a Prediction

Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 2%

What was the final result? No

Community Baseline Score

81.6

Community Peer Score

12.0

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Mar 31, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Armed Forces of Ukraine

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

85%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Mar 31, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Armed Forces of Ukraine

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

85%