Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?

condition

Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?

Resolved:No

20 forecasters

if yes

if no

Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?

Resolved:Annulled

Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?

Resolved:No

2 2 comments

20 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 2%

What was the final result? No

Community Peer Score

12.0

Community Baseline Score

81.6

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Mar 31, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Dec 25, 2024

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1% chance

174

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

0.5% chance

227

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

6% chance

1.8k

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Mar 31, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Dec 25, 2024

Conditional Cup

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1% chance

174

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

0.5% chance

227

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

6% chance

1.8k