US-China war before 2035?

condition

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

US-China war before 2035?

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21 forecasters

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US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?	US-China war before 2035?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 5%

if Yes

if No

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

3% chance

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

20% chance