Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

condition

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

16 forecasters

if yes

if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

10%

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

60%

3 3 comments

16 forecasters

Make a Prediction

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?	Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 10%

if Yes

if No

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump’s meeting with Xi

CNN•Oct 30, 2025

Taiwan general warns China’s military drills could be preparation for blockade or war, vows to resist

FOX News•Oct 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1% chance

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

883 forecasters

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

13% chance

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump’s meeting with Xi

CNN•Oct 30, 2025

Taiwan general warns China’s military drills could be preparation for blockade or war, vows to resist

FOX News•Oct 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1% chance

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

883 forecasters

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

13% chance