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12
23
forecasters
9
12 comments
23 forecasters
Artificial Intelligence
1 more...
When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model?
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>30 Dec 2025
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More than 30 Dec 2025
Resolved
More than 30 Dec 2025
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8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
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4
Mar 2033
6
Dec 2032
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Current estimate
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13 comments
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Will Claude Mythos be released before Sep 2026?
80%
chance
3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%