Question
When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model?
Total Forecasters20
Community Prediction
10 Nov 2025
(25 Jun 2025 - >30 Dec 2025)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 25 Jun 2025 | — |
| median | 10 Nov 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | >30 Dec 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 Dec 2025 | 43.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 16, 2024
Closes:Dec 29, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 19, 2024
Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?
90%
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
17 May 2028
Authors:
Opened:Apr 16, 2024
Closes:Dec 29, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 19, 2024
Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?
90%
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
17 May 2028