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13
23
forecasters
10
13 comments
23 forecasters
Technology
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When will an AI model capable of autonomously generating accurate and complete book summaries be commonly available?
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Current estimate
19 Mar 2026
19 Mar 2026
(11 Jan 2025 - 28 Apr 2027)
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Comments (13)
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5 comments
17 forecasters
AI reaches human-level in reading charts
Current estimate
04 Jan 2027
3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
59.3%
In 2028-2029
26.9%
2030 or later
13.6%
71 comments
421 forecasters
AI book comprehension before 2030
99.9%
chance
8 comments
136 forecasters
25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050
33%
chance
8 comments
37 forecasters
Development of Human-Level Language Models
Current estimate
18 Feb 2024
1 comment
24 forecasters
AI to publish in a top scientific journal
Current estimate
01 Feb 2028
7 comments
69 forecasters
Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning
Current estimate
11 Sep 2026
0 comments
13 forecasters
Dates Publicly Downloadable Large AI Models
4
Mar 2033
6
Dec 2032
2
09 Oct 2030