233 forecasters

Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?

99%chance

99%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 11, 2024

Closes:

May 31, 2024

Resolved:

May 13, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 12, 2024

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel-Gaza Conflict

2024 Leaderboard

Israeli troops press forward into Gaza City as Palestinians flee

Associated Press•Sep 17, 2025

Early this morning the IDF (Israel Defense Force) invaded Gaza city with thousands of troops

OpEdNews•Sep 17, 2025

Palestinians flee Gaza City as Israel says it launched ground assault amid global outcry

CNN•Sep 17, 2025

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